Thanksgiving could be more expensive this year.

Here’s how to navigate higher prices

The aroma of roasting turkey, the warmth of spiced cider, the gentle murmur of family laughter—these are the timeless ingredients of an American Thanksgiving.

For many, this cherished holiday is a beacon of tradition, a time when the table groans under the weight of beloved dishes, creating memories that last a lifetime.

Yet, as we approach this year’s feast, a subtle but unsettling whisper is making its way through grocery aisles and kitchen conversations: the cost of tradition is rising.

The familiar comfort of the holiday meal now comes with a side of sticker shock, forcing families to balance heartfelt customs with prudent budgeting.

In short: Americans face higher Thanksgiving dinner prices due to turkey and beef cost surges, and packaging tariffs.

However, strategic shopping practices such as meal planning, opting for fresh over canned, choosing store brands, and shopping early can significantly help mitigate these expenses (NPR, 2025).

Why This Matters Now: The Economics of the Holiday Table

The prospect of a more expensive Thanksgiving dinner is not merely an inconvenience; it represents a tangible impact on household budgets and the way families celebrate.

For millions of Americans, the rising cost of holiday food prices can force difficult choices, potentially diminishing the joy and abundance typically associated with the occasion.

This year, consumers will likely face higher prices on items for their Thanksgiving dinners (NPR, 2025).

The economic forces driving these increases are varied and interconnected, touching upon everything from agricultural challenges to global trade policies.

Understanding these dynamics is crucial for both consumers and policymakers.

For instance, wholesale prices for turkey, the undisputed centerpiece of the Thanksgiving meal, have jumped by 40 percent from a year ago (Department of Agriculture).

This significant increase is attributed to outbreaks of avian influenza, or bird flu, coupled with heightened demand.

Similarly, those contemplating a beef roast instead of turkey will find little respite, as beef prices are nearly 15 percent higher than last year (Bureau of Labor Statistics).

These figures paint a clear picture: the core elements of the traditional holiday meal are commanding a premium.

The Core Problem: Unpacking the Rising Costs

The upward trend in Thanksgiving dinner costs can be attributed to several key factors, creating a multi-layered challenge for consumers.

It is not a single culprit, but a confluence of economic and environmental pressures that are making holiday food prices soar.

Beyond the main proteins, even side dishes are feeling the pinch.

Canned vegetables, a staple for many holiday tables, are 5 percent more expensive compared to last year (NPR, 2025).

This increase is directly linked to higher packaging costs, a ripple effect from the steel and aluminum tariffs previously put in place by the Trump administration.

While these tariffs were intended to protect domestic industries, they have inadvertently contributed to increased grocery store prices for consumers.

The Impact of Tariffs and Other Market Forces

The role of tariffs in influencing food prices is complex, and their removal does not automatically translate to immediate savings for holiday shoppers.

President Trump did announce rollbacks of tariffs on several commodities, including beef, in an effort to combat high prices at grocery stores (NPR, 2025).

However, David Ortega, a professor and food economist at Michigan State University, offers a nuanced perspective.

He clarifies that tariffs are not the sole cause of increasing prices, and therefore, their removal will not completely lower costs.

By removing the tariffs, what we are doing is we are slowing down the increase in the price of many of these goods.

So while we may not see prices go down for the holidays, it helps in terms of moderating the price increases that we have been accustomed to at the grocery store (David Ortega, NPR, 2025).

This insight suggests that while tariff rollbacks offer some relief, consumers should manage their expectations regarding price drops for their Thanksgiving budget.

The pace of food inflation may slow, but a return to previous price levels is unlikely in the short term.

The ongoing impact of factors like avian flu on turkey prices and general market demand further complicates the picture, reinforcing that these external forces significantly influence core holiday food prices (NPR, 2025).

Expert Advice: Navigating Higher Prices with Smart Shopping

In the face of these rising costs, consumers are not powerless.

Strategic planning and informed shopping choices can significantly help to mitigate higher Thanksgiving dinner costs.

Food economist David Ortega offers several practical grocery shopping tips to help families stretch their holiday budget further.

One key recommendation from Ortega is to opt for fresh produce rather than canned fruits or vegetables (NPR, 2025).

This strategy directly helps consumers avoid the higher prices resulting from increased aluminum packaging costs.

Fresh produce, when in season, can often be more cost-effective and provide a richer flavor profile for your holiday meal.

Strategies for Saving on Your Holiday Feast

Planning is paramount when aiming to save money on your Thanksgiving feast.

Ortega strongly recommends that shoppers plan their meals out in advance.

This means taking time to consider all the dishes, ingredients, and quantities required, rather than making last-minute decisions.

Once your meal plan is set, creating a comprehensive shopping list and, crucially, sticking to it, is vital.

Ortega advises that it really pays off to plan ahead and create a shopping list, making sure you are sticking to it and avoiding impulse purchases (David Ortega, NPR, 2025).

Impulse buys, often positioned strategically by grocery stores, can quickly inflate your Thanksgiving budget without adding essential value.

Additionally, looking for private label or store brands over name brands can lead to significant savings on various items.

These products often offer comparable quality at a lower price point.

Lastly, Ortega suggests shopping early for certain items.

Taking advantage of sales or promotions that grocery stores might offer in the weeks leading up to the holiday can help you secure key ingredients at a reduced cost before demand drives prices higher.

These methods for saving money holidays are simple yet effective for navigating food inflation.

Risks and Trade-offs in Holiday Budgeting

While smart shopping strategies offer practical ways to manage Thanksgiving dinner costs, it is important to acknowledge certain risks and trade-offs.

Relying heavily on sales or promotions means consumers must be vigilant and flexible, as desired items might sell out or not be discounted as anticipated.

This demands a proactive approach to grocery shopping tips rather than last-minute scrambling.

Another trade-off involves brand preference.

While private label and store brands offer savings, some families may feel a strong attachment to specific name brands for traditional holiday dishes.

Balancing the desire for cherished brands with budget constraints requires careful consideration.

Furthermore, the advice to buy fresh produce rather than canned, while beneficial for avoiding tariff-related costs, might not be practical for everyone, especially those with limited time for preparation or who prioritize convenience.

Consumers must weigh these personal preferences against the potential for saving money holidays.

Smart Shopper’s Toolkit: Planning Your Feast

To effectively navigate the potentially higher holiday food prices, equipping yourself with a smart shopper’s toolkit can make a significant difference.

This involves embracing digital tools, setting clear goals, and maintaining a disciplined approach to your Thanksgiving budget.

For digital tools, utilize grocery store apps and websites to browse weekly flyers, compare prices, and clip digital coupons in advance.

Many apps allow you to build shopping lists directly, helping you stick to your plan and avoid impulse purchases.

For goal setting, set a clear budget for your Thanksgiving meal.

This simple step provides a financial boundary and helps guide all subsequent shopping decisions, prioritizing essential items over discretionary ones.

For review cadence, make a habit of checking prices for key holiday ingredients in the weeks leading up to Thanksgiving.

This allows you to identify trends, spot early sales, and adjust your shopping list or menu as needed to take advantage of the best deals.

FAQ

• Why are Thanksgiving dinners more expensive this year?

  Thanksgiving dinners are more expensive this year primarily due to a 40 percent increase in wholesale turkey prices (driven by avian flu and demand), a 15 percent rise in beef prices, and a 5 percent increase in canned vegetable costs due to packaging tariffs (NPR, 2025).

• Will rolling back tariffs reduce holiday food prices?

  While tariff rollbacks are intended to combat high prices, they are expected to only slow down the increase in prices, not cause them to go down completely for the holiday season, according to food economist David Ortega (NPR, 2025).

• What specific items have seen price increases for Thanksgiving?

  Turkey prices have jumped 40 percent, beef prices are up nearly 15 percent, and canned vegetables are 5 percent more expensive.

  These are major drivers of the overall increase in Thanksgiving dinner costs (NPR, 2025).

• Are there any Thanksgiving items that are cheaper this year?

  Yes, some items have seen price decreases.

  Egg prices have declined from earlier this year, and domestic wine prices are down about 1.2 percent from last year due to steady supply and softening demand (NPR, 2025).

• What can consumers do to save money on their Thanksgiving meal?

  Consumers can save money by planning meals in advance, creating and sticking to a shopping list, buying fresh produce instead of canned, opting for private label or store brands, and shopping early to take advantage of sales and promotions (NPR, 2025).

Glossary

• Avian Influenza: A highly contagious viral disease primarily affecting birds, commonly known as bird flu, which can impact poultry supply and prices.
• Tariffs: Taxes imposed by a government on imported goods and services, which can increase the cost of those goods for consumers.
• Food Inflation: The rate at which the average price of food products increases over a period of time.
• Private Label/Store Brand: Products manufactured and sold by a retailer under its own brand name, often as a more affordable alternative to national brands.
• Impulse Purchases: Unplanned buying decisions made by consumers on the spur of the moment, often influenced by in-store displays or immediate desires.
• Food Economist: An expert who studies the production, distribution, and consumption of food within an economic framework.

Conclusion

The Thanksgiving table, a symbol of abundance and gratitude, faces new economic realities this year.

While the prospect of a more expensive holiday meal due to turkey prices increase and broader food inflation may seem daunting, it does not diminish the spirit of the occasion.

Just as families adapt traditions over generations, so too can they adapt their shopping habits to meet these challenges.

By embracing smart planning, making informed choices about key items, and leveraging available savings strategies, families can still create a meaningful and memorable feast.

David Ortega reminds us that planning ahead really pays off, ensuring that the heart of Thanksgiving—gratitude and togetherness—remains the most valuable ingredient.

Let us approach this season with mindfulness, resilience, and the joy of shared abundance, regardless of the fluctuating prices.

References

NPR, Thanksgiving could be more expensive this year.

Here’s how to navigate higher prices, 2025.